Using Total Solar Eclipses as a Lens to Understand the Sun
During a total solar eclipse, the Moon blocks the Sun’s blinding light, revealing the surrounding magnetized atmosphere. These events present a perfect opportunity for scientists to better understand the complex structure and interconnected physics that link the solar surface to the Earth and beyond. Such understanding is critical for accurately forecasting our space environment, including dangerous space weather events such as immense solar storms, which can damage critical infrastructure. One powerful tool to help scientists interpret their observations is the use of physics-based simulation codes to model the Sun’s atmosphere. Over the years, a team of researchers at Predictive Science, Inc. has made simulations that predict solar eclipses and compared their synthetic observations to those of real eclipses, allowing them to validate the model’s accuracy and make improvements. Leading up to the total solar eclipse that will cross North America on April 8, 2024, the researchers will test the latest improvements to their model—continually updating their predictions to the moment of the event. Three weeks before the eclipse, their predictions will be posted on the Predictive Science, Inc. website (see Related Links).
Quick Facts
Due to the inherent time sensitivity in making eclipse predictions, our complex simulations need to be run efficiently with the latest input data possible. The NASA Advanced Supercomputing facility facilitates this with their substantial high-performance resources, a flexible scheduling system, and an above-and-beyond 24/7 support team.
- The researchers run simulations using the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm Outside a Sphere (MAS) code on NASA’s Pleiades, Electra, and Aitken supercomputers, with some faster-than-real-time simulations taking multiple days to complete using over a hundred compute nodes.
- Results show that with good magnetic field input data, eclipse observations match the simulations quite well. The results have led to interesting discoveries such as how complexity in the surface magnetic field can lead to sharp, complex features far from the Sun that appear in eclipse images.
- The improved model prediction results have helped scientists plan and interpret their observations. Comparing the predictions and eclipse observations has led to further understanding of the underlying physics, driving improvements in the model, which helps improve knowledge about the Sun and aids the development of space weather forecasts.
- The team is planning their prediction simulations for the upcoming 2024 total solar eclipse, which will be visible across the USA. They will test the latest advances in the model, including the ability to drive the simulation with continuously updated measurements.
Researchers
- Cooper Downs, Predictive Science Inc. Please enable Javascript to see email address.
- Ronald M. Caplan, Predictive Science Inc. Please enable Javascript to see email address.
